Juneau, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

798
FXAK67 PAJK 252327
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 PM AKDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SHORT TERM...A weak low that brought some showers and increased
cloud cover to the southern panhandle continues to fall
apart through Friday afternoon. A weak upper level ridge
extending from the Yukon is also assisting in thinning out clouds
over the southern panhandle, though this will be offset later
Friday night into Saturday with the incoming surface warm front.
For southern Prince of Wales Island, a low marine layer is
expected to move in bringing down visibilities over the water near
the outer coast through Saturday morning before lifting by late
morning as winds in the southeast gulf continue to increase with
the approaching cold front. For the inside waters, E/W oriented
channels will see increasing winds as the low strengthens and
moves into the central gulf. However, these are expected to top
out around moderate breeze (11 - 16 kt) Saturday night into Sunday.
Clarence Strait could see winds increase to fresh breeze (17 - 21
kt) for this same timeframe as the front stalls along the outer
coast.

This strengthening low is expected to peak midday Saturday
bringing near gale force sustained winds (28 - 33 kts) to northern
gulf waters with frequent gusts to gale force during that time,
gradually diminishing Saturday night into Sunday. For the
panhandle, the northern gulf coast will see rain move in Saturday
morning but then push offshore later in the day as the low
continues to slide southward towards the central gulf. Communities
along the inner channels are expected to remain relatively dry due
to the track of this feature keeping precipitation mostly
offshore. Communities along the central and southeastern gulf
coast have a chance to see some light rain with the warm front and
follow up cold front Saturday. However, if the low tracks a bit
further west, associated precipitation may stay offshore
completely, with only cloud cover and elevated south/southeast surface
winds impacting these areas. As of this discussion, the greatest
chance for precipitation for these communities would be Saturday
night as the system continues to slowly drift into the central
gulf and occlude.

For temperatures, clearer skies for the northern panhandle will
lead to warmer daytime highs Saturday. For the central and
southern panhandle, slight warming due to the onshore flow and
warm front offset by the increased cloud cover. Otherwise no large
fluctuations in temperature are expected across the panhandle in
the short term.

.LONG TERM...
Main threats:
-Southeasterly 22 to 27 knots of wind for coastal areas Saturday/Sunday.
-Southeasterly 15 to 21 knots for Clarence Strait.
-East-southeast 12 to 17 knots for Frederick Sound, Peril Strait, and Icy Strait.

Changes:
-Reduced wind speeds for Inner Channels and Dixon later Sunday.
-Reduced chances for rain across majority of Panhandle.

Sunday a broad closed off low will position itself in the central
gulf, where it will stagnate over the next several days. Expect
moderate to fresh breezes (12 to 21 knots) across the inner
channels, with strong breezes (22 to 27) knots along our coast.
Major ensembles continue to shift rain south and out of the
Panhandle, with the band of moderate rain now forecasting along
our coastal waters. One impact from this low is that it will block
further large systems from entering the gulf, with shortwaves
rotating around the parent low and into the Panhandle through next
week. Continued southeasterly winds, light rain will be the
theme. Far upstream, remnants of tropical typhoon activity in the
west pacific will shift north, with probabilistic forecasts
showing better agreement on extratropical transition. Consequences
of this will be better moisture transport into our area, with the
potential for long period WSW swell to impact our coast by the
end of next week.



&&

.AVIATION...The stratus deck over the panhandle is slowly
disintegrating as a combination of the ridge over the panhandle
shifting east works alongside daytime heating to weaken its hold
across SE AK. Widespread VFR conditions, alongside a few lingering
places with MVFR due to ceilings, are anticipated through the
remainder of Friday afternoon and Friday evening. The marine layer
will attempt to reform in some locations Friday night into early
Tuesday morning one last time before being finally departing in
full on Saturday. Even still, expect it to be more patchy than in
previous nights, and some locations will see higher CIGS overnight
and through the morning hours Friday night into Saturday as
compared to previous nights. Where the layer does take hold
(particularly in places like the Outer Coast and Gustavus) IFR
conditions are possible through Saturday morning before conditions
improve to VFR. Beyond this point, some chances of rain for the
far outer coast through the latter half of the weekend (and for
Yakutat), but otherwise expect mainly upper level clouds and
widespread VFR conditions.

These VFR conditions, once established, look set to continue
through much of the next week as a stationary low over the
central gulf directs other systems around the panhandle, save for
a few weaker shortwaves moving up from the south.


&&

.MARINE...
Inside Waters:
N/S channels will see southerly light to gentle breezes (4 to 10
kts) persist through the day before the next system enters the
gulf. As the initial warm front pushes into the panhandle,
Clarence Strait will see winds increasing fresh breeze (17 - 21
kts) and seas building up to 3 ft near Dixon Entrance. In the
northern panhandle, skies are expected to remain clearer as the
low continues diving southward into the central gulf Saturday,
allowing for a modest sea breeze to develop in northern Lynn
Canal.

Outside Waters:
Winds across the gulf have already largely shifted southeasterly
Friday afternoon in response to a trough extending from a
developing low near near Cook Inlet. Associated winds will begin
to increase along the northern gulf coast Friday night before
spreading south to the entire offshore outer coast. Sustained
near- gale force winds (28 to 32 kts) with gale force gusts (34 to
40 kts) are possible with this front, peaking through middle of
the day Saturday. Strongest winds are expected in nearshore waters
beyond 15 nm from the Fairweather grounds to Cape St Elias. Wave
heights will increase from around 5 ft to over 12 ft in the open
gulf waters Friday into Saturday as this system moves in.
Currently, wave period is around 7 seconds with a W swell of 2 ft
or less.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...STJ

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