Juneau, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

950
FXAK67 PAJK 181430
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
630 AM AKDT Sun May 18 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...The broad surface trough has
weakened and been displaced by a surface ridge extending into
Southeast Alaska from the southwest. Today, reduced cloud cover
will lead to warmer daytime temperatures and the likely
development of sea breezes by early afternoon. A strengthening
gale-force low is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of
Alaska this afternoon, bringing increased cloudiness to the
Panhandle, especially south of Frederick Sound. Although the
system will likely begin weakening as it nears the Panhandle,
winds reaching low-end gale force are still expected over the
southeastern Gulf, Dixon Entrance, and Hecate Strait areas from
this evening into early Monday. Areas on southern Prince of Wales
Island and land areas adjacent to southern Clarence Strait may
also experience wind gusts up to around 35 mph during that time.
For more information see the marine discussion...

.LONG TERM...Continuing from the short term, the primary impacts
from this system will be the near gale force winds as it makes
its initial approach and then stalls and weakens just offshore,
before slowly continuing inland Tuesday. 24 hour maximum
precipitation will peak in the range of less than one inch, though
locally higher amounts can be expected at higher elevations. The
heaviest precipitation is expected to occur with the onset late
Sunday night into early Monday morning, with highest amounts along
southern PoW, gradually spreading towards Annette Island and
Ketchikan.

With the low stalling, the southern panhandle will see rain
continue to start the week, before the low shears apart becoming
an open wave trough along the coast range, with light showers and
broken cloud cover persisting through midweek, as well as sliding
further northward. Overall the northern half of the panhandle
looks to remain mostly dry and clear to start next week.

Looking towards midweek, there is still some uncertainty with a
Bering low that is expected to enter the western gulf Wednesday,
which could end up bringing more unsettled weather to the northern
gulf coast and eventually the rest of the panhandle by Thursday.
Stay tuned for further updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Through the morning hours, expect most airport
locations to remain VFR, with MVFR for a few areas in the southern
half of the panhandle and the Outer Coast as patches of stratus
which developed overnight occasionally move across the area.

Winds in the southern panhandle will increase by Sunday afternoon,
reaching 10 to 15 kt with potential for gusts up to 25 kt for
Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway, with Ketchikan joining the party by
late Sunday afternoon as the next approaching system arrives and
pressure gradient increases. As the system arrives, so too do the
aviation concerns. Not expecting too much significant issues with
regards to CIGS and VIS, with conditions potentially reaching down
to MVFR for some locations at times by 03z to 06z. LLWS in the
far southern panhandle will prove to be a different story, with
LLWS of 30 to 40 kt developing around 2000 ft for areas south of
Sumner Strait, and likely to last through 18z the 19th to 00z the
20th depending on location.

&&

.MARINE...As of this morning, the wind forecast through Monday
has been adjusted upward for some areas. Winds over Clarence
Strait and near the ocean entrances of Sumner and Chatham Straits
were increased by about 5 to 10 knots, expanding the area expected
to see low to mid-range Small Craft Advisory conditions (25 to 30
knots). Similarly, forecast winds for the southeastern Gulf of
Alaska were raised to reach low-end gale-force levels over a
broader area. This adjustment is based on updated model guidance
indicating a bit stronger upper-level forcing than previously
anticipated. Wind speeds over the Northern Lynn Canal area were
also increased for the same reason.

Outside Waters: Winds will begin to strengthen today from the
east-southeast as a gale-force low advances eastward toward Haida
Gwaii. By early this evening, winds off the southern Outer Coast
are expected to approach gale strength. Confidence is increasing
that gale-force winds will develop across the southeastern Gulf,
Dixon Entrance, and Hecate Strait areas from this evening into
Monday. Over that same area, seas are forecast to build to 10 to
14 feet tonight, then gradually subside through Monday. During
this period, winds over Clarence Strait will rise to 25 to 30
knots. After Monday, winds across the Gulf will diminish and hold
steady at around 10 to 15 knots through midweek. Another weather
system is expected to bring increasing winds beginning Thursday
and continuing into the latter part of the week.

Inside Waters: Moderate to fresh breezes are expected across most
of the Inner Channels through Monday. From today into Monday,
winds will strengthen across the southern third of the Inner
Channels and the eastern Gulf of Alaska, reaching strong breeze to
gale-force levels. This increase is due to a gale-force low
tracking west to east, passing just south of the southeastern
Gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-642-643-662>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...JLC

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